Tony Cincotta and I interviewed Lawr Michaels of Creative Sports  on Baseball East to West, and one of the many fantastic nuggets of information and strategy that he mentioned on the show dealt with targeting young players entering their third year.

Michaels’ reasoning had to do with the fact that these players have often already had some success at the big league level, know they belong in a big league uniform, and can now carry that confidence to the next level. Add in tremendous skills, upside on already-strong performances and youth.

Michaels brought up guys like Stephen Drew, Dustin Pedroia and Chad Billingsley on the show as picks that typify this strategy, and these guys have been soaring up mock draft rankings. Let’s take a look at some other young players entering their third year and see if they fit the mold.

Ryan Braun – Braun is as safe a first rounder as exists going into 2009 drafts. Best of all, he still holds untapped upside, and could be a top five pick by 2010. You fine people don’t need me to tell you Ryan Braun is good, but don’t forget just how good. If he slips to you in the second round, pull the trigger immediately, without question.

Joakim Soria – The Mexecutioner emerged last year as one of baseball’s dominant closers, with 42 saves, 1.62 ERA and a strikeout an inning, and seems like a great bet to repeat in 2009. Soria compares extremely favorably to closers like Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Lidge, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan, and may be available a few rounds later while delivering similar stats on a Royals team that will likely find itself playing a lot of close games. I’ve seen Soria go as early as 6^th round and as late as 9^{th ,} so value is largely based on where you can get him. 

Tim Lincecum – Just like Braun, you don’t need me to tell you that Tim Lincecum is good. But is he second round good? Is it really worth spending a second round pick on him? The reigning NL Cy Young winner looks like a decent bet to add more hardware to his mantle. Regardless of his talent, I wince at spending such a high draft pick on a pitcher when so many dominant power bats remain available. Draft strategies aside, if you like drafting starting pitching early, Lincecum is a great pick. The scary thing is that he might even have room to improve, and if the Giants add a bat or two and give him some run support, he could get even better.

BJ Upton - Upton enters his third year as a wild card in 2009 drafts. His power numbers should rise from 2008, but he's still a huge risk in the second round. Rumors about his lax work ethic offer no reassurance, but hopefully the hyper-competitive AL East and a formidable Rays team will keep him motivated. Upton's speed/power combination is seductive to fantasy owners, but with so many other possibilities in the second round, I'd be happy to let my competition take the risk. The price is simply too high. 

Troy Tulowitzki – Tulowtizki missed 59 games because of a torn left quadriceps and a lacerated right hand in 2008, and left many fantasy owners wondering what happened to their third/fourth round pick. The FantasyPros911.com Draft Guide blithely dismisses Tulo’s 2007 as a complete fluke, but I beg to differ. He hit .327 with 5 HR and 30 RBI after coming back in the second half of 2008, and he still holds more upside than aging vets like Michael Young, Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada. With Holliday gone, Tulowitzki could take a more central role in the offense as well, seeing more RBI opportunities in an offense that desperately needs him to step up. With SS shallow this year, Tulo is a calculated risk well worth taking in his third year.

Francisco Liriano –The only thing worse than paying for last season’s stats is paying for three seasons ago’s stats. Rattled by injuries and possibly rushed back by the Twins, he remains a bit of a question mark despite displaying dominating talent. The Liriano of 2006 must still be fresh in fantasy owners’ minds, because he’s being drafted like an ace. Beware overpaying for him, especially if there are other aces still on the board. Let someone else take the risk.

Joba Chamberlain – If you watched Joba pitch at all last year, his dominance was unmistakable at times. The Yankees will likely carefully monitor Chamberlain’s innings in 2009, and he may still need to stretch out to throw enough innings to truly become a fantasy ace. Even in the unlikely event the Yankees get wishy-washy and have him setting up for Mariano Rivera, his gaudy strikeout totals would still give him value. He’s in the rotation for good, and entering his third year and pitching on a revamped Yankee team may be the tipping point. 

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta’s 18 HR in 2008 were fifth among MLB catchers, and he’s still got a ton of upside. The Rockies still owe Yorvit Torralba starter money, so the only worry here is playing time, but Iannetta will likely enter Spring Traning as the starter and see the majority of Colorado’s backstop ABs. He’s accepted an invitation to play on Team USA in the WBC, which will continue building his confidence and maturity. He could rank among the top 5 catchers by the end of 2009, and this may be your last chance to draft him cheaply.

Alex Gordon – His name has become synonymous with the phrase “post-hype sleeper.” His potential seems limitless. Could this be the year Gordon actualizes his potential? His skills appear to have stagnated across the board, but his age and pedigree still offer hope. It’s a risk worth taking once he slips far enough, but inflating your expectations practically begs for failure. Gordon remains an intriguing talent, but have a back-up plan in mind just in case.

John Danks – Danks dropped his ERA by over 2 runs, struck out 159 in 195 innings and added a cutter to his repertoire in 2008. He’s not all that different than guys like Zack Greinke, who is getting a lot more off-season buzz, and could fly under the radar in many drafts. Draft the young left-hander as your #5 starter and he could earn #2 value.

The list of third year players goes on, and it reads like a veritable “who’s who” of young major league talent. Targeting some of these third year talents can serve as an excellent under-the-radar draft strategy, as well as help you identify future players on the cusp of breaking out.

Remember, value is always in proportion to where you have to draft a player. Some young players will slip because of their lack of lengthy track record, while others will see their value inflate to the point that they may not represent the best value on the board. Use your discretion, but keep an eye on these third year players.

Which of these third year players do you like? Are there others not mentioned here that fantasy owners should keep their eyes on?

Be sure to download the podcast for an excellent interview, and dip into the archives for interviews with Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and Adam Ronis of Newsday.