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Quality Game Scores - Year in Review - RB PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Bob Lung   
Friday, 30 July 2010 00:00
Let’s take a look at who were the most consistent running backs in 2009. We’re going to look at the running backs and take a look at those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected running backs in 2009, plus which running backs could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.
 
So, let’s start with the first tier of the top running backs ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.
 




TIER ONE
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success Rate
Adrian Peterson
284.50
2
15
16
94%
Chris Johnson
343.90
1
13
16
81%
Ray Rice
249.10
4
13
16
81%
Thomas Jones
230.00
5
13
16
81%
Ryan Grant
210.00
8
13
16
81%
Joseph Addai
198.50
9
12
15
80%
 
The top tier of consistent running backs for 2009 consists of running backs that had an 80% or higher QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). These names are familiar to the fantasy world. Ray Rice, as the lone rookie in the first tier, surprises all of us, but if you played fantasy football, you’re not surprised to see him here.
 
What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor), is the fact that they would have expected the top six running backs with an over 80% QGSR to ALSO be the top six overall fantasy points scorers. As you can see, they’re not. Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai ranked eighth and ninth overall. Therefore over 80% of their games they scored over the Quality Game Factor (9.34 fantasy points per game), but they didn’t score much over that amount each week either. Actually the both averaged over 13 points per game played, so don’t be too down on them.
 
THE EXPECTED
 
Adrian Peterson was Mr. Consistency this season with a 94% QGSR. When you realize that second place was 81%, you realize that he dominated the consistency world at running back. Now, here’s the funny part of this. Many fantasy experts called Peterson’s year a disappointment because of Favre “stealing” so many Red Zone touchdowns from Peterson this season.
 
Chris Johnson is the man that everyone is talking about in 2009! His No. 1 overall points victory by a 60 point margin over Peterson was the “water cooler” talk of the year. The reason for this talk was Johnson’s perfect 10 for 10 Quality Games over the last weeks of the season including the fantasy playoffs (even in Week 17). Was he expected to be good? Yes. Was he expected to No. 1 overall? Nope.
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
As stated above, Ray Rice was a highly touted running back out of college. However, there are always great college running backs coming into the league, but most don’t end up their first year as the No. 4 running back in overall points and with an 80% QGSR. Just for a minute factor in the 12 rushing touchdowns that Willis McGahee “vultured” away from him, it’s almost scary how good he should be someday.
 
Thomas Jones was expected to be “stepping aside” for the new era in the Jets running game. Leon Washington and stud rookie, Shonn Greene. Jones didn’t “step aside”. Leon Washington got hurt and Shonn Greene did little to move Thomas Jones out of his starting role. The off-season question will remain, “Is Jones done in New York?” Only if he moves onto another club and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish wherever he goes.
 
Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai weren’t expected to be top 15 running backs. In fact, most rankings had them in the 16 – 24 range of the running backs. Grant and Addai not only ended up as the ninth and eighth overall running backs in fantasy points, but they both ended up an over 80% QGSR.
 
 
TIER TWO
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts
Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success
Rate
Frank Gore
228.60
6
11
14
79%
Ronnie Brown
125.65
33
7
9
78%
Cedric Benson
172.20
15
10
13
77%
Maurice Jones-Drew
271.50
3
12
16
75%
Steven Jackson
195.80
10
11
15
73%
Michael Turner
148.60
22
8
11
73%
Ladainian Tomlinson
158.40
19
10
14
71%
DeAngelo Williams
175.90
14
9
13
69%
Ricky Williams
214.50
7
11
16
69%
 
THE EXPECTED
 
Frank Gore was all over the fantasy experts’ boards ranking from sixth to 15th. However, Gore proved he belongs by ranking sixth overall (even though he missed two games). He also had an excellent 79% QGSR.
 
Maurice Jones-Drew ended third overall, which was expected by most fantasy experts. His consistency was marginal at a 75%. This was his first full season without Fred Taylor, so we’ll give him a break. He will continue to be a stud for years to come.
 
While many would say that they did NOT expect Steven Jackson to end the season ranked 10th overall, I can honestly say that I did. With no other offensive weapons on the Rams team, as much as I love Jackson as a player, there was just no way I felt he could end up in top five or six. If he is undervalued in your draft next year and you can get him as your No. 2 running back, do it!
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
Injuries to Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams caused all three of these projected 2009 studs to disappoint many fantasy teams. The good news was that when they played their Success Rate was close to 70% or higher. Don’t hesitate to draft these players in 2010. All three should be undervalued due to the injuries.
 
Cedric Benson was barely even a quip on the radar prior to the fantasy drafts, but Benson exploded onto the fantasy world with seven out of eight Quality Games until the injury bit him and slowed him down the rest of the season. He missed three games and was still ranked 15th overall and had a 77% QGSR.
 
Ricky Williams was grossly undervalued in the preseason and for the good reason that he has Ronnie Brown in front of him. However, Ricky proved his worth both when he shared the field with Brown and even more so after Brown got hurt. He ended the season ranked seventh overall.
 
LaDainian Tomlinson was given high expectations by myself and others. However, after Week Nine, Tomlinson had only earned three Quality Games for the year and was looking pretty bad in doing it. But, something clicked inside him at the start of Week Ten and he earned seven Quality Games over the next eight weeks to end the season with a 71% QGSR. Not what was expected of him, but still a nice comeback after such a horrible start.
 
 
 
 
TIER THREE
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success Rate
Steve Slaton
122.40
35
7
11
64%
Marion Barber
155.30
21
9
15
60%
Pierre Thomas
156.50
20
8
14
57%
Rashard Mendenhall
181.90
13
9
16
56%
Knowshon Moreno
166.00
17
9
16
56%
Tim Hightower
146.60
24
9
16
56%
Carnell Williams
145.50
26
9
16
56%
Kevin Smith
143.60
27
7
13
54%
Jamaal Charles
186.70
12
8
15
53%
Laurence Maroney
135.60
30
8
15
53%
Jonathan Stewart
191.20
11
8
16
50%
Fred Jackson
170.65
16
8
16
50%
Matt Forte
161.00
18
7
16
44%
 
This tier consists of a bunch of different scenarios. We have Steve Slaton and Marion Barber at the top of this tier and Matt Forte at the bottom of this tier. These players were ranked in the top 15 during the preseason. However, injuries and the “sophomore” jinx kicked in and these two just couldn’t get it going.
 
Another group in here is the future stars at the running back position in fantasy football. Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles and Fred Jackson are all players to keep an eye on leading into the 2010 season.
 
The last group in this tier is the washed-up players like Laurence Maroney and Carnell Williams. They have a few good games to keep your interest, but they’re too inconsistent to worry about.
 
Well, there’s your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the running backs in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Steve Slaton or Matt Forte on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
 
If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis
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2010 Top 300 Fantasy Football Rankings PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Paul Greco   
Thursday, 29 July 2010 09:00
Here is a look our intial Top 300 Fantasy Football players ranked. This is for NON-PPR Leagues

Updated July 28
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2010 Top 300 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Paul Greco   
Thursday, 29 July 2010 09:00
Here is a look our intial Top 300 PPR Fantasy Football players ranked. This is for NON-PPR Leagues

Updated July 28
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Quality Game Scores - Year in Review - QB PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Bob Lung   
Thursday, 29 July 2010 00:00
The 2010 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, so let’s take some time to review this past season and see just how consistent your fantasy players were.
 
Many times throughout my 25 years in fantasy football I have heard the complaint of how their team was in top three or four in scoring, but their team didn’t make the playoffs. This was why I created the Quality Game Scores concept in the first place, in order to indentify those players who were not only good (in total fantasy points), but consistently good.
 
We’re going to start with the quarterbacks and take a look at those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected quarterbacks in 2009, plus which quarterbacks could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.
 
So, let’s start with the top 25 quarterbacks ranked by total Quality Games earned.
 
Player Name
Total Points
Avg Points
Total QG
Total GP
QG Percent
Aaron Rodgers
391.10
1
14
16
88%
Peyton Manning  
339.70
4
14
16
88%
Drew Brees
353.70
2
13
15
87%
Matt Schaub
343.60
3
12
16
75%
Tony Romo
331.65
6
12
16
75%
Philip Rivers
323.70
9
12
16
75%
Ben Roethlisberger
325.30
8
11
15
73%
Tom Brady
327.30
7
11
16
69%
Eli Manning
293.55
10
11
16
69%
Kurt Warner
276.90
13
10
15
67%
Brett Favre
333.80
5
10
16
63%
Kyle Orton
267.20
16
10
16
63%
Donovan McNabb
278.75
12
9
14
64%
David Garrard
272.15
15
9
16
56%
Jay Cutler
287.50
11
8
16
50%
Carson Palmer
251.00
18
8
16
50%
Matt Ryan
228.70
19
7
14
50%
Jason Campbell
272.50
14
7
16
44%
Joe Flacco
256.85
17
7
16
44%
Matt Hasselbeck
211.35
20
6
14
43%
Matt Cassel
210.80
21
6
15
40%
Alex Smith
181.60
23
5
11
45%
Vince Young
165.05
26
5
12
42%
Chad Henne
187.10
22
5
14
36%
Matthew Stafford
167.15
25
4
10
40%
 
 
THE EXPECTED
 
Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at No. 2 and No. 4 respectively is an obvious expected. Both headed into the season as the top two fantasy quarterbacks. Peyton was perfect in Quality Games all season through Week 15 and then due to the Colts management “protection plan” in the last two weeks, he missed earning a Quality Game in each one. Brees was solid most of the season, though he did slack off near the end of the year, but still earned a Quality Game until Week 17.
 
Aaron Rodgers was expected to be a top fantasy quarterback. In fact, I predicted he would be a top three quarterback. Would have I bet on my house on him being at the top in overall fantasy point by almost 40 points over Brees and 50 points over Manning and be tied as the top Quality Game earner with 14 QG’s? Probably not. What is the main difference in separating Rodgers from these two? His feet! Rodgers had 304 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. Brees had 34 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Manning had -13 (yes, that’s a minus sign) yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns. Case closed.
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
I know this may seem weird that we are already heading towards the unexpected. However, continue on and I think you’ll see why I believe the remainder of these players were unexpectedly (good or bad) in the rankings (both in overall points and Quality Games earned).
 
We start with Matt Schaub. I pat myself on the back because I did believe that if Schaub played all 16 games he would make the top six fantasy quarterbacks. So first, Schaub DID play all 16 games. THAT was unexpected. Second, Schaub ended the season as the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and had the second highest number of Quality Games earned with 13. Again, I predicted good, but not that good. Can he do it again in 2010? Tough call. I’m predicting no, but I hope I’m wrong.
 
The “roller coaster ride” known as Brett Favre had Vikings fans and fantasy owners in a tizzy all season. It was UNEXPECTED that he would play for the Vikings. He did. He was EXPECTED not to be very good. He was, as he ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. However, where he killed fantasy teams was with his inconsistency. He only earned 10 Quality Games, but so did Kyle Orton and he was ranked 16th! You see my point. His 63% Quality Game Success Rate was awful for someone who ranked fifth overall.
 
Another disappointing unexpected in 2009 was Phillip Rivers. He ranked in many expert’s top five for 2009 and while the Chargers as a team did well, Rivers ended the season ranked as the ninth best quarterback in total fantasy points.

Of course, at least Rivers didn’t have as high as expectations as Tom Brady. Brady, coming back from taking the entire 2008 season, except for the first quarter of the first game, was ranked in the top five, if not top three by most experts. He finished the year ranked seventh overall, but it was Brady’s inconsistency that killed many fantasy teams who drafted him in the first two to three rounds. Most of us expect better than a 69% success rate from Tom.
 
An unexpected good came from Tony Romo this season as he ended the season ranked sixth overall and had a 75% success rate. Many experts placed Tony out of the top ten and sometimes outside of the top fifteen. Many thought Tony was done when Terrell Owens and Jessica Simpson left town. He wasn’t.
 
Another unexpected good was Ben Roethlisberger in 2009. I’m pretty sure that he wasn’t ranked in the top 12 during the preseason and yet, even though he missed a game due to injury, he ended the season ranked eighth overall and earned a 73% success rate. He’s one to keep an eye on going into next season.
 
Swinging back to the bad side of unexpected, Kurt Warner had some small injuries and a fairly productive running game in Arizona and that held back to ranking only 13th overall and earning a 67% success rate. After a top five finish last year, this kind of lack of production will make him a little more “sleeper-esque” heading into next season.
 
Here’s a quickie for you. Donovan McNabb did NOT play a full 16 game season again. For the love of whomever, please do not draft him ever in your fantasy leagues. He just can’t stay healthy.
 
I’m saving my last unexpected for the Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton combo. The off-season trade put many fantasy experts high on Cutler and the Bears and down on Orton and the Broncos offense. While neither of them impressed anyone by the end of the season, Cutler did prove that he’s just as inconsistent in Chicago as he was in Denver by ranking 11th overall and only having a 50% success rate. Orton proved that he’s not a fantasy stud, but he’s pretty consistent as he earned two more Quality Games than Cutler, but only ranked 16th overall.
 
Well, there’s your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the quarterbacks in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Brett Favre or Tom Brady on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
 
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Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Team Preview PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Andrew Feingold   
Thursday, 29 July 2010 00:00
 
altBengals Fantasy Team Preview

Last season: 10-6 (First in the AFC North)

Since 1988 the Bengals have won over 10 games just three times. Last year’s postseason appearance was their first since 2005. The team exceeded expectations by playing sound defense and running the ball against any team. Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer has turned the defense around and RB Cedric Benson has revived his career on the field. Cornerbacks Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph are one of the top cover corner combos in the NFL.

Key Additions: Wide Receiver Terrell Owens, WR Antonio Bryant, WR Matt Jones, Cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones, Kicker Mike Nugent, K Dave Rayner, Safety Gibril Wilson,

Key Losses: Runningback Larry Johnson, Fullback Jeremi Johnson, WR Chris Henry, WR Laveranues Coles, Defensive Tackle Shaun Smith, K Shayne Graham

Key Draft Picks: TE Jermaine Gresham, DE Carlos Dunlap, WR Jordan Shipley, CB Brandon Ghee, DT Geno Atkins, WR Dezmon Briscoe

Offensive Ranks:

19.1 points per game (22nd)

181 passing yards per game (26th)

128.5 rushing yards per game (ninth)

Defensive Ranks:

18.2 points per game (sixth)

301.4 Total yards per game (fourth)

203.1 passing yards per game (sixth)

98.3 rushing yards per game (seventh)

The Bengals were a strong fantasy defense because of their ability to defend the pass and run. The unit gave up 12 points or less in five games and allowed 2.1 touchdowns per game. They also allowed 17.1 first downs (t-third in the NFL) and 2.5 red zone attempts per game (t-fifth).

Key Games:
1 Sep 12 CIN @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
2 Sep 19 BAL @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
3 Sep 26 CIN @ CAR Bank of America Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
4 Oct 03 CIN @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
5 Oct 10 TB @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX      
6 Bye  
7 Oct 24 CIN @ ATL Georgia Dome 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
8 Oct 31 MIA @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
9 Nov 08 PIT @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 8:30 PM Tickets ESPN      
10 Nov 14 CIN @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
11 Nov 21 BUF @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
12 Nov 25 CIN @ NYJ New Meadowlands Stadium 8:20 PM Tickets NFLN      
13 Dec 05 NO @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX      
14 Dec 12 CIN @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
15 Dec 19 CLE @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS      
16 Dec 26 SD @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 8:20 PM Tickets NBC

Insight:

In two games against the Ravens, Benson rushed for 337 yards and two touchdowns. WR Bubba Caldwell caught a touchdown pass in each game against the Ravens. The Dolphins and Browns got beat up through the air last year each allowing 234+ passing yards per game. The Panthers allowed 124.8 yards rushing yards per game. Benson has another favorable matchup against a weak Bills run defense.

The Bengals have two home games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 could be one of the best match ups they have all season. Cleveland allowed 389.3 yards of offense (31st in the NFL). Ochocinco caught two touchdowns against Cleveland in Week 4. In Week 12 against the Browns they rushed for 210 yards. Against the Chargers lasts season Palmer threw for a season high 314 yards and one touchdown.

IDP (Individual Defensive Player) Watch:

CB Leon Hall: Hall was one of the two players (Charles Woodson) to have over 70 total tackles and six interceptions. Hall finished third in the NFL with 24 passes defended. He also forced two fumbles last season.The cover corner was a second team All-Pro last season.

Key Players:

QB Carson Palmer: It was only a few years ago when Palmer was an elite fantasy quarterback. He averaged 4000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns from 05-07. He suffered a torn ligament in his elbow which knocked him out early in 2008. Palmer played in all 16 games last season but did not look 100 percent. According to Football Outsiders' only 15% of Palmer’s passes qualified as a deep throw. He threw for 193.4 yards per game and completed 60.5 percent of his passes. In previous full season (2007), he averaged 258.2 yards per game and completed 64.9 percent of his passes.

Despite the down season, he led the offense on eight late-game scoring drives that either gave the Bengals the lead or tied a game. With the pieces the Bengals added through the draft and free agency, Palmer should have a bounce-back year. If the offensive line remains intact and his arm strength returns to old form, look for more throws down field. The Bengals offense emphasized the run last season, but should be more balanced with an upgrade passing attack. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is the 15th QB off the board (ninth round).

RB Cedric Benson: Benson finally lived up to his potential when he rushed for a career high 1,251 yards. The former bear finished second in the NFL with 96.2 rushing yards per game. He missed three games last season including two juicy match ups against the Raiders and Browns. His 301 carries and 4.1 yards were also career highs. He torched some of the top rush defenses in the league: 141 yards vs. the Packers, 120 and 117 (two touchdowns) vs. the Ravens, 76 and a touchdown vs. the Steelers.

He was one of six backs to receive over 300 carries last season. He averaged 23 carries a game which was more than Adrian Peterson and Stephen Jackson. It was reported that he will likely not be suspended stemming from an off-the field incident. He is entering a contract season and no other backs are real threats to take away carries. Benson enters the season as the clear starter and should be motivated to put up another monster season. His ADP is the 14th back off the board (third round).

TE Jermaine Gresham (Sleeper): Gresham missed his senior season due to a knee injury, but was still the 21st overall pick in the draft (first TE drafted). In his junior season he caught 66 passes for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns. The former Sooner was a 2008 First Team All-American. He is a big target (6”5”-261 pounds) that will roam the middle of the field. He has the speed and size to make an impact in his rookie season. Opposing defenses will have their hands full focusing on the other targets.

WR Chad Ochocinco: Ocho returned to old form posting another 1,000+ yard season. He finished with 72 catches and nine touchdowns (most since 2005). He saw 128 targets and had seven red zone touchdowns. Ochocinco accounted for 42.9% of his team's touchdown receptions.The presence of Owens could hurt his numbers in the red zone but seeing less double team’s increases is value. His ADP is the 17th WR off the board (fourth round).

WR Terrell Owens: The Bengals signed Owens to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract (chance at $2 million in incentives). Before we get caught up in last year’s numbers he still caught 55 passes for 829 yards for the 30th ranked passing offense. T.O still saw 109 targets, more than WR’s Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston. The Bengals plan to stick Owens out wide, and use WR Antonio Bryant in the slot. Bryant, has already had knee issues in training camp. His ADP right now is the 47th WR off the board making him a steal in the 10th round.

Opposing teams may not double team or roll the safety over to cover Chad Ochocinco as often. T.O has missed one regular season game the past four seasons. He will be turning 37 years old in December but he keeps himself in tremendous shape. Among active receivers, Owens ranks first in receptions (1,006), receiving yards (14,951) and trails Randy Moss for the lead in touchdowns (144).

WR Antionio Bryant (Bust): It was the second straight season the Bengals signed a receiver to a four-year, $28 million dollar contract. WR Laveranues Coles turned out to be a bust and was released in the off-season. When Bryant has stayed healthy for a full season, he has been a productive fantasy receiver. Two seasons ago he set career highs with 83 catches, 1.248 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season he battled through injuries and caught 39 balls for  600 yards and four touchdowns. He only had two games over 90 yards last season. In his breakout season he had six of these games including a 200 yard game.

T.O should take over as the second receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco. Bryant has already been dealing with knee problems. The Bengals also added other pieces to the receiving corps which will take away targets from Bryant. 

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Quality Game Scores - Beating Luck with Consistency PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Bob Lung   
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 21:07

The Head-to-Head (H2H) format in Fantasy Football leads to the need for consistency. If you have been playing fantasy sports for any length of time, you know how frustrating it can be to win by 30 points one week and then lose by 2 points the next. How many times have you been one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but you miss the playoffs by one or two games?

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